How To Profit From Nfl Line Moves

While various civilizations and cultures around the world have been engaged in some form of betting for more than 3000 years, the point spread, or ‘betting line’, is a relatively new invention and has only been in use for the better part of 70 years. Its impact in this relatively short period of time is undeniable and as an un-named bookie quoted in a 1951 book by sports journalist Charles Rosen put it: The spread has easily been ‘the greatest discovery since the Zipper’. Without question, it has had a huge part to play in today’s popularity of one sport in particular–the game of American football.

While most certainly an American invention, the true origin of the point spread is cloudy. Some experts believe it was introduced in the 1920′s while others claim it wasn’t widely used until the 1930′s in the New York area. Regardless of its actual birth-date, this much is known–In the years following the 2nd world war, the point spread became the dominant form of wagering for both American football and basketball. It was a bookies dream, helping to make the underdog much more attractive and assuring sports books and bookies a 10% profit on the ‘vigorish’ shaved off the top of winning bets.

Originally set in the early days by a consulting firm out of Minneapolis run by Leo Hirschfield, spreads are now more of a consensus originated by managers from sports books inside Vegas’ casino’s, as well as offshore establishments. For the purposes of my research, I have relied on the lines provided by the Don Best Sports Information Service, a consensus of roughly 25 sportsbooks (17 offshore and 8 Las Vegas).

For the majority of games, the point spread is initially set in the hope that wagers will fall fairly evenly on both contestants. Sometimes the bookmakers will misread public opinion and you may see a 2 or 3 point move in the point spread from early in the week until the close of betting action. In other situations, the bookmakers will purposely set a skewed line in an attempt to sucker the public into taking predominately one side–a team that those in the ‘know’ will stay away from. While this might appear to be a risky position for the sport books to take, having 80-90% of action on one side where the line value greatly favours the bookmaker is a good situation for sports books (and individual bookies) to be in over the long-haul.

While the Internet age has certainly helped to sharpen the betting skills of the average bettor by providing an abundance of high level handicapping info, a large percentage of bettors can still be classed as ‘squares’–meaning, they will bet on the well-known favorites week after week, no matter what the circumstances. It’s this group of novice and intermediate bettors that Vegas and the off shore books will prey on over the course of each season. Evidence of this is shown in the fact that over the past 14 years, a strategy of betting all favourites has turned a profit in only 2 different years (1998 and 2005) and since 1994, favourites are a dismal 1543-1652 (48.3%) against the number.

Contrarian betting methods have always worked well in the NFL and by using services that track where square money is flowing each week, sharper bettors can put themselves in a position to ‘cash-in’ on sucker lines and play against the majority. This is a strategy that works in most years (1998 and 2005 aside), but, this kind of information does not come cheapservices that analyze and provide bet percentage information can charge anywhere from $100-$600 US per month.

An alternative to this is to utilize the Internet to obtain ‘live’ NFL lines which can provide an indication of where the money is flowing on any particular game. A line that is adjusted downwards is usually a reaction to a larger amount of money coming in on the underdog while a spread that creeps up, is a sign that the favourite is receiving more of the action. By analyzing the timing and size of these moves, I have been able to come up with a total of 8 different betting strategies that are easy to implement using free line data found on the Web.

All of these situations use the line posted Wednesday evening at 6pm as the starting point but any stable line listed between Wednesday and Friday evening (for Sunday and Monday games) should work equally as well.

The first group of situations involves wagers on favourites while the 2nd covers good opportunities on the underdog. Profits shown are based on 10/11 odds with a $110 wager to win back $100 on each game.

Fav Situation #1: Favourites that increase in the final hour before GT.
Record since 2001: 100-83 ATS (+$870) 15-21 ATS in ’06.
(Closing line used for grading).
A late increase in the line from the value posted 1 hour before game time signifies a good play on the favourite. This situation suffered in ’06 as favourites generally took a beating overall, but it has still shown a decent profit over the past 6 years.

Fav Situation #2: Favourites that are at least 1 point bigger @ 1/2 hour before GT than they were on Wednesday evening.
Record since 2001: 107-85 ATS (+$1,350) 16-18 ATS in ’06.
(Line 1/2 hour before GT used for grading).
Favourites that rise between Wednesday evening and a 1/2 hour before game time have been very profitable, except for last season. The line must increase by at least 1 whole point for this situation to be effective.

Fav Situation #3: Favourites of exactly 3 points on Wednesday that increase to at least 3.5 points @ 1/2 hour before GT.
Record since 2001: 26-20 ATS (+$400) 5-9 ATS in ’06.
(Line 1/2 hour before GT used for grading).
Field-goal spreads are usually not prone to fluctuations; however, when it does happen, the favourite is a decent bet as long as the move is an increase. This situation also took a beating in ’06, but, it should be in-line for a rebound in 2007.

Fav Situation #4: Favourites of exactly 7 points on Wednesday that increase to at least 7.5 points @ 1/2 hour before GT.
Record since 2001: 15-8 ATS (+$620) 3-1 ATS in ’06.
(Line 1/2 hour before GT used for grading).
As with field-goal spread values, teams favoured by an even TD @ mid-week do not normally move off this number, but, when the line increases, the favourite has been an excellent wager in the past 6 seasons–including 2006.

Profits from line movements are not limited to favourites alone. There are also 4 different strategies available for those that like to place their money on the Dog.

Dog Situation #1: Underdogs that decrease in size during the final hour before GT.
Record since 2001: 109-80 ATS (+$2,100) 11-9 ATS in ’06.
(Closing line used for grading).
Spreads that drop from the value posted 1 hour prior to game time signify a good play on the underdog. This situation has been a consistent winner since 2001 and it can occur as many as 40 times per season.

Dog Situation #2: Underdogs of 7 or 7.5 points on Wednesday evening that are a bigger underdog 1/2 hour before GT.
Record since 2001: 25-14 ATS (+$960) 4-1 ATS in ’06.
(Line 1/2 hour before GT used for grading).
This situation does not arrive too often but when it does, it’s extremely profitable. This strategy includes moves of only a 1/2 point, such as a shift from 7 to 7.5, or, 7.5 to 8.0.

Dog Situation #3: Underdogs that are at least 2 1/2 points smaller @ 1/2 hour before GT than they were Wednesday evening.
Record since 2001: 20-13 ATS (+$570) 6-3 ATS in ’06.
(Line 1/2 hour before GT used for grading).
Underdogs in this situation are typically small dogs of 1-2 points that actually swing over to a small favourite as game time approaches. Despite the large loss in line value, they still remain a very good bet to cover.

Dog Situation #4: Big underdogs of >= 12 points on Wednesday that have dropped in size @ 1/2 hour prior to GT.
Record since 2001: 13-9 ATS (+$310) 5-3 ATS in ’06.
(Line 1/2 hour before GT used for grading).
This situation has seen limited action since 2001, but, it has shown some promise and I will be watching its results closely in 2007.

The lesson to be learned from these situations is that: line moves–late ones especially–offer a relatively simple (and free) way to turn a profit each season. The driving force behind these movements could be the result of the betting actions of a relatively small number of ‘high-rollers’ with inside information, or, perhaps the reactions of many smaller bettors placing last-minute wagers based on late-breaking injury updates and changing weather conditions. Regardless of the source, no decent handicapper can afford to ignore the implications that these key changes may have on their wagers.

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Backgammon-the First Move Is The Deadliest

Often in backgammon games, the outcome of the entire game could be determined in one or two successful opening plays.

You want to be on the giving end of those moves ,rather than on the receiving one.

Playing internet backgammon in general ,and especially playing backgammon for money can be nerve racking, as you want to win at all cost, so here are some tips and helpful advises that will assist you in reading your opponent, his strategy, his way of thought on the board in general.

In certain backgammon tournament and several online-games sites, a double in the opening move is prohibited, so when you think about it there are only 15 possible plays for your opponent (or for you for that matter) to begin with.

To each of the 15 opening plays there are over 20 possible replies-some more successful than others- the idea is to know which play to use and when.

In the following explanation I will give you some helpful tips that will help you choose the right play at the right time, and hopefully helping you win some cash…

The following are the recommended replies when you get a double:

*1-1:

In this situation it is my recommendation that you “build” two houses, one at the 7- point bar and one at the 5-point bar. This will help keeping your opponent at bay, and it’s considered both a fine offensive and defensive play.

*2-2:

While there are several beneficial moves with this roll, the most important tip here is to not make the run towards the 16-point bar, as it will get you nowhere.

The best thing for you is to establish your position is the 11,4 point bar with a two-checkers house.

*3-3:

Most players would play this by taking the 7 point bar, which is …ok. But the best play here is to either hit your opponent in the 3\5 point bar if possible and make the 10 and 21 point bar moves.

*4-4:

Again, it is best to try and initiate a hit, since 4-4 is a strong combination, otherwise try to move to the 9 and 20 point bar.

*5-5:

While several experts will recommend on the play from the 13 point bar to the 3 point bar- I disagree.

I think the best play is hitting if possible at the 1 point bar and closing it with the 3 point bar from the 8th spot.

*6-6:

Now this is a real double edged sword, since on one hand it can help you establish your full and complete control on the board, it can also get stuck you with an atom bomb when all you needed was a fire cracker.

It is my advice that you try and establish yourself in the 18 and 7 point bar, but if those spots are taken the 2point bar is alright…

Now, the following are the recommended replies for an opening move with a non double roll:

*5-1, 4-1:

Not a great roll, the best way to go is to split your far checkers, or make a hit if possible. However, it is not wise to make the 8 point bar.

*6-3, 6-2:

Depending on your game plan – the offensive minded player should take the 18 and 10\11 point bar, and obviously hit if possible. The more conservative player should probably go for the 15\16 point bar.

*5-2:

Here you should definitely hit your opponent if possible since it’s a short range roll, if not ,the best way to go is for the 11 and 8 point bar.

*5-3, 3-1, 4-2, 6-1:

A very good roll for you to start with, and in any case like this that allows you to build a barrack with two checkers – do it!

The one exception is perhaps if your opponent exposed himself at the 9-10-11 point bar…your barracks are meant to keep his checkers in, and if he is already on the run, an empty jail is not worth much…

*2-1:

Again, if hitting is possible- do it! If not, just make the 21 point bar.

*6-4, 6-5:

These are also strong rolls, that should be used as an offensive tool, meaning you should take your far checkers to the 13-14 point bar rather than going safe at the 2 point barrack.

For conclusion, I have played thousands of games and backgammon tournaments ,whether online games or offline, whether it was backgammon for money or free backgammon, these moves were proven successful not once, so stick to it and remember that sometimes the right reply at the right time could well be the finishing play.

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Is Asia A New Horizon Of The Poker?

The poker game has been a part of card games competitions for more than two hundred years already. Undoubtedly, poker has charmed the majority of the planet, starting from poker rooms on river boats and in bars on the Wild West in the past and up to modern card rooms with a huge amount of tables and luxurious casinos all over the world. Be it the USA, Europe or even Latin and South America, poker has become a super popular game of the 21st century. But even now there is a “new horizon”, which will be actively conquered in the forthcoming years, in order to move poker to the new stage of its popularity among dozens of millions of new players.

This “new horizon” is a continental Asia. One billion people lives in China, one more billion is the population of India, and one more billion is spread over the remaining part of the continent. Considering such an amount of potential poker players, this market is a “gold vein” for organizers of the game. Only recently this horizon started to be developed (with or without the assistance of local governments). The new horizon can become the last one for poker, meaning that it will completely conquer the whole world. Organizers of poker assure that by the end of 2007 many Asians understand perfectly well what is “blind”, “turn” and “river”.

For a long time on-line companies have been interested in the possibility of entering Asian markets (particularly, Chinese market), but governments of Asian countries prevent on-line or traditional gambling industry from full-scale development. The government of India, for example, does not actively support the idea of the gambling industry (though there are six casinos in this country). China, which will host international Olympic games-2008, the government gradually weakens the control over the Internet. This is very good news for the representatives of the gambling industry, who have already prepared to launch a large-scale acquaintance of Asia with poker.

Steve Wynn, the owner of hotels and casinos all over the world, is ready to bring his brilliant and glamorous style to the Asian market. Wynn Macau”, the complex of casinos and hotels, was opened on September 5 in Macao. It familiarizes the Asian continent with the luxury of Las-Vegas. It includes hotels of 600 rooms and casinos, which undoubtedly offer gambling and poker games, just like the other Steve Wynn’s institutions do all over the world. The 20-storeyed hotel will be an exact copy of the hotel-casino Wynn Las Vegas”. The company plans to arrange further spreading of table games throughout the continent.

TV has also brought poker tournaments onto the Asian market. The most popular world poker tournament (World Poker Tour or WPT) has recently granted a license to TV stations in Macao and Singapore for them to show the first season of WPT games to the Asian audience. But the continent is getting ready to organize its own outstanding poker tournaments. The organization entitled PanAsia Poker Tour” has recently declared that the debut of this new championship will take place in November, and it is for the first time in history that the official championship will take place in Manila, Philippines.

The event called PAPT Philippine Open” will take place on November 3-5 in Airport Casino Filipino”. Its final tournament will incorporate free Texas holdem poker game with the prize fund of $2500. It is expected that the tournament, which got the official permission of Philippines State Corporation for Control over entertaining and gambling industry (Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation or PAGCOR), will attract celebrities and professional poker players who would attempt to win the title of the tournament champion. There are plans to film this tournament to be shown in the future on Asian TV. This means that the spectators of the Asian continent want to watch games, which are played on their own land.

However, the poker tournament entitled PanAsia” does not stop at arranging one event. Leaders of this organization have adopted plans to arrange in 2007 a tour across the continent with ten stops. The latter are planned in Macao, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Australia and the Philippines. If the tour appears to be successful, it will be able to attract millions of new poker players to the poker community.

India is also a part of Asia; the world outlook of Indians in many aspects reflects the peculiarities of Asian or even Eastern philosophy. Gambling games and casinos in the Indian society are usually condemned (though many Indians want to change this), while poker sites, which are not prohibited here, encounter difficulties in spreading deeper into the continent. It is interesting that some activities of the on-line poker companies take place particularly in India. For example, the company PartyPoker” has a branch office there with 900 employees, the company pays taxes here, as well as in Gibraltar, where its headquarters are located. Nevertheless, India will be able to display its real interest to poker during the first tournament in the history of this country, which will take place in 2007.

Asian poker championship in India – Asian Poker Classic – with the guaranteed prize of one million dollars will take place on March 1-3, 2007, in a major resort Goa (Grand Resort Goa) in the hotel Intercontinental”. It is expected that more than two hundred players will take part in the tournament. The admission fee being $7500, this competition is to attract some of the best poker players from all over the world and many celebrities. Its organizers hope that the poker site (and the tournament sponsor) Maharajah Club” that has earned a reputation a long ago will help to attract many players to this competition.

Perhaps, the organizers themselves will give the best account of the tournament. This is what the tournament director and the respected director of the championship “European poker tournament” (European Poker Tour) Thomas Kremser said about the event. Nothing similar has ever happened in India before. Undoubtedly, the tournament will be impressive. The striking beauty of the Goa resort, splendid hotels and absolutely unique character of this tournament will become its unsurpassed scenery. It will be the poker tournament of the year!”

Asian poker players have already inscribed their names into the history of the game. From Johnny Chan to Men “The Master” Nguyen and Can Kim Hua, Asian players made their contribution to the game, and today their impact is felt in any tournament. Upon arriving onto the Asian continent, poker will conquer the new and the last geographic horizon and give birth to a new generation of champions from Asia.

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